Sorry, but I had to get this off my chest. All these last-minute bullets are flying around in the Mayor's Race, with respect to Panos Prevedorous and the StopRailNow effort.

At the heart of the issue is a controversial website, FirePanos, which smears Panos and the SRN Campaign with poorly Photoshopped images, and inciteful language that's not worth repeating. Suffice it to say, it's another ASS (Anonymous Smear Site) hiding behind the First Amendment. Of particular interest is the speculation about who's behind the site, and many fingers are pointed toward Keith Rollman, one of the Mayor's IT aides.

This story gets interesting, as Keith Rollman has publicly expressed some very strong opinions against the SRN petition in the past, and has helped establish the GoRailGo site. I note that he botched his anonymity when he initially registered gorailgo.com, but has since gotten it right with gorailgo.org after people started pointing out the whois information.

So, it appears that Keith Rollman has some skills, but with an obvious mistake like that, it's safe to say he's far from being an Internet God.

Anyway. A couple of days ago, a smear-email campaign went out, promoting the FirePanos website. What's very interesting is that the News reported that their own IT experts "traced the IP address in the email headers" to a machine within the StopRailNow campaign headquarters.

My beef with this is this: neither I, nor anyone within IT circles I trust, have verified the Email Logs to validate this claim made by the Honolulu News organizations.

It's very easy to spam with spoofed Email Headers to fake an IP Address. This is "Script Kiddie" stuff that could have been employed by Keith Rollman, or any FirePanos sympathizer with entry-level technical skills.

Why aren't there more IT Professionals jumping on this? Is it so hard to snarf some Email Server logs to hand over to a group of independent IT Auditors?

Me, I'd like to personally audit those email logs. I'm 100% against the current Steel-on-Steel Rail through Salt Lake plan, and I'll likely vote for Panos.. but I'm interested to find out if the smear-spam did in fact come from SRN Headquarters (which I doubt), or if the Email Server logs hold enough information to find the true source.

If Keith Rollman was responsible for the smear-spam, I seriously doubt he's capable of pulling it off flawlessly. After all, he got caught with the GoRailGo domain registration, and that's a ridiculously trivial mistake to make.

So, I'm all for releasing some Email Server logs, to get at the truth. Is StopRailNow the "dirty politics campaign" that Mufi and Cronies want us to believe, or is it really the other way around?

Considering all those thefts of campaign signs in this election (and the last Mayoral election), you can guess which way I'm thinking...

I noticed the BULLSHIT posted on the front page of  HonoluluTransit.org and the GoRailGo.org Rail Propaganda Websites, and decided to offer a rebuttal to these false claims.  Thank goodness the people at StopRailNow.com are suing the City into providing TRUTHFUL information to the public.  Until that happens, it's up to us Conscientious, Educated Citizens to spread the truth about Rail. 

What's Good about Rail? 

Good for MOBILITY
One train can move 300 people which equals 6 buses or 300 cars!  That means one rail line equals 6 lanes of cars.

Oh really?  This is an over-inflated claim.

If one train can move 300 people, and we can push a maximum of 20 trains per hour (one every 3 minutes), that means one rail line can only transport a maximum of 6000 people per hour.  One lane of Freeway Traffic is estimated to move over 2000 vehicles per hour (33 vehicles per minute, or about 1 vehicle every 2 seconds).

At 60 MPH, vehicles cover 88 feet per second (60 Miles Per hour = 1 Mile Per minute; 1 Mile = 5280 Feet, so 5280 Feet per minute = 88 feet per second).  A common factor is 1.467*Speed in Miles Per Hour; so at 50MPH, vehicles cover 73.35 feet per second.

To sustain 1500 Vehicles per Hour at 60 MPH (1 vehicle every 2.4 seconds), vehicles must be no more than 211 feet apart (2.4 seconds * 88 feet per second); with average mid-sized vehicles like the Toyota Camry having a length of about 15 feet long, that leaves 196 feet (about 13 car lengths) between a vehicle and the one in front of it.

To sustain 2000 Vehicles per Hour at 60 MPH (1 vehicle every 1.8 seconds), vehicles must be no more than 159 feet apart (1.8 seconds * 88 feet per second); or about 9.5 car lengths between a vehicle and the one in front of it.

As you'll notice, both the 1500 and 2000 vehicles per hour rates are within the two common "Safe Driving" rules of thumb:  1 Car Length per 10 miles per hour; or the "2-second distance rule".

If we also factor in a higher number of Express-Buses and High-Occupancy Vehicles travelling those same freeway lanes, we can yield a Net Average of 2, or possibly 3 People per Vehicle in those lanes:

( (50 Occupants x # of Buses) + (5 Occupants x # of High Occupancy Vehicles) + (1 Occupant x # of Single Occupant Vehicles) )

divide that by the Total Number of Vehicles to yield the Average Occupancy Factor.

Thus, 1500 or 2000 vehicles can transport 3000-4000 people with an Occupancy Factor of 2; or 4500-6000 people with an Occupancy Factor of 3.

Thus, the maximum yield of one rail line REALLY translates to the maximum yield one or two lanes of cars, not six.

More traffic-congestion formulas can be found at  http://www.krellinst.org/AiS/textbook/unit2/flow_solution.html
 

Building a Mass Transit system is an idea that's long overdue for Honolulu, and I'm all for finding a solution to help the rush-hour crunch. However, from what I've seen, none the proposed Fixed Rail plans will make a noticeable difference on peoples' commute times.

The way I see it, the best impact on Commute Times can be made if the Mass Transit System can service College Students from Leeward Oahu going to UH Manoa and back.  I don't care what the Transit Technology is, as long as we all agree on the expected Return on Investment (ROI) -- reduced commute times during peak hours.

Unfortunately, Honolulu made a grievous error: they elected the Polynesian equivalent of Senator Ted Stevens. However, instead of building a Bridge to Nowhere, Mayor Mufi Hannemann is pushing to build a Fixed Rail System to Nowhere, and will stop at nothing to get that damn thing built.

Here's what bothers me about Mufi's plans and the tactics used to railroad Honolulu into building a Flawed Fixed Rail system:

Fixed Rail Proposals Won't Meet The Need
None of the Fixed Rail plans will extend from Kapolei to UH Manoa in the initial phases.  Alternative Plans like an enhanced Bus System do. In fact, recent articles suggest it'll only run from Kapolei to Pearl City? WTF, Pearl City is THE congestion point we need to alleviate, since the H1/H2 Merge is just awful. Despite this key limitation of the Fixed Rail proposals, Honolulu's politicians insist that Fixed Rail is the way to go.

The spin machine is hard at work
Recently, a "Selection Committee" decided upon a Steel on Steel system.  For crying out loud, the City hasn't settled on Fixed Rails and ruled out the Alternatives yet.  Hannemann has his blinders on, and he thinks that by creating a Bogus Selection Committee, the People of Honolulu will be brainwashed into accepting his solution.

Residents are ALREADY Paying Into the Fund
Despite the fact that no Mass Transit plan has been approved, Honolulu Residents are pre-paying into a Bogus State Fund to cover the costs. Yes, Hannemann coerced the State into increasing the State Excise Tax to fund a Mass Transit project.  Earlier this year, though, Hawaii's State Legislature introduced a bill to force Honolulu to commit to a plan by June 30, or forfeit the collected Funds from the Excise Tax increase.

"Federal Funding Be Damned, Let's Build It!"
With opposition from the State, and the uncertainty of receiving Federal Funds (notice the Dulles Airport rail system isn't well received), Mayor Hannemann knows he's in trouble.  In fact, Hannemann is scrambling to jump-start his Fixed Rail system – without a plan, without community approval, and now, without Federal Funding.

Honolulu has NOT explored all available options.  Here are a few Mass Transit proposals I have of my own: