www.not404.com

I noticed the BULLSHIT posted on the front page of  HonoluluTransit.org and the GoRailGo.org Rail Propaganda Websites, and decided to offer a rebuttal to these false claims.  Thank goodness the people at StopRailNow.com are suing the City into providing TRUTHFUL information to the public.  Until that happens, it's up to us Conscientious, Educated Citizens to spread the truth about Rail. 

What's Good about Rail? 

Good for MOBILITY
One train can move 300 people which equals 6 buses or 300 cars!  That means one rail line equals 6 lanes of cars.

Oh really?  This is an over-inflated claim.

If one train can move 300 people, and we can push a maximum of 20 trains per hour (one every 3 minutes), that means one rail line can only transport a maximum of 6000 people per hour.  One lane of Freeway Traffic is estimated to move over 2000 vehicles per hour (33 vehicles per minute, or about 1 vehicle every 2 seconds).

At 60 MPH, vehicles cover 88 feet per second (60 Miles Per hour = 1 Mile Per minute; 1 Mile = 5280 Feet, so 5280 Feet per minute = 88 feet per second).  A common factor is 1.467*Speed in Miles Per Hour; so at 50MPH, vehicles cover 73.35 feet per second.

To sustain 1500 Vehicles per Hour at 60 MPH (1 vehicle every 2.4 seconds), vehicles must be no more than 211 feet apart (2.4 seconds * 88 feet per second); with average mid-sized vehicles like the Toyota Camry having a length of about 15 feet long, that leaves 196 feet (about 13 car lengths) between a vehicle and the one in front of it.

To sustain 2000 Vehicles per Hour at 60 MPH (1 vehicle every 1.8 seconds), vehicles must be no more than 159 feet apart (1.8 seconds * 88 feet per second); or about 9.5 car lengths between a vehicle and the one in front of it.

As you'll notice, both the 1500 and 2000 vehicles per hour rates are within the two common "Safe Driving" rules of thumb:  1 Car Length per 10 miles per hour; or the "2-second distance rule".

If we also factor in a higher number of Express-Buses and High-Occupancy Vehicles travelling those same freeway lanes, we can yield a Net Average of 2, or possibly 3 People per Vehicle in those lanes:

( (50 Occupants x # of Buses) + (5 Occupants x # of High Occupancy Vehicles) + (1 Occupant x # of Single Occupant Vehicles) )

divide that by the Total Number of Vehicles to yield the Average Occupancy Factor.

Thus, 1500 or 2000 vehicles can transport 3000-4000 people with an Occupancy Factor of 2; or 4500-6000 people with an Occupancy Factor of 3.

Thus, the maximum yield of one rail line REALLY translates to the maximum yield one or two lanes of cars, not six.

More traffic-congestion formulas can be found at  http://www.krellinst.org/AiS/textbook/unit2/flow_solution.html
 

Good for the ENVIRONMENT
It's sustainable - rail can be powered by alternative energy like solar, wind or H-power.  This means less air and water pollution and fewer green house gas emissions.

In the near future, vehicles can ALSO be powered by solar, wind, or H-power.  We are already seeing Hybrid vehicles and Plug-In-Electric vehicles coming to market.  Thus, vehicles will also produce less pollution and fewer green house gas emissions.

For both Rail and Plug-In Vehicle Hybrid options, Honolulu should be asking:  How will this affect Hawaiian Electric Company, and do we need to make plans for additional Power Plants to provide power for this extra Electricity Consumption?

Good for the ECONOMY
The rail project will create 90,000 person years of employement or 11,000 direct and indirect jobs annually.  And, building a reliable, dependable, efficient transportation system encourages healthy economic growth. 

 At a time when the economy is in a RECESSION, and the buying power of our Almighty Dollar is at an all-time-low, building ANY MASS TRANSIT solution is not good for the overall economy.  At best, it will only benefit the CONTRACTORS who are working on building the Mass Transit Solution.

$3.7 Billion worth of Euros, Yen, or Hong Kong Dollars TODAY will be worth MUCH LESS when we actually get around to BUYING those Rail Train Cars from Japan.  Where will Honolulu come up with the projected shortfall caused by inflation?

Good for COMMUNITIES
Rail encourages managed, orderly growth along the route.  Planning where and how communities expand means we can keep the country country.

Rail will also provide opportunities for CRIMINALS to more easily move between communities.  For years, Honolulu Police had difficulty in controlling the drug, prostitution, and criminal activities of CHINATOWN (which is in the middle of Downtown!).  How do you think HPD will do when the drug dealers are hanging around at Rail Stations?

How do you think HPD will do when the GANG ACTIVITY increases along the Rail Line?  Two possible but disturbing outcomes:  Rival gangs routinely coming in via Rail to settle their differences in once quiet neighborhoods;  or larger, more organized, and more DANGEROUS gangs become UNITED along the Rail Stations.

Who will protect the elderly, or the school children whose schools are along the proposed route?

Good for YOU
The less time you spend in traffic means the more time you have for yourself and your family and that means a better quality of life for everyone.

 Nothing, absolutely NOTHING about Rail will reduce your commute times.  Not in the City's Alternatives Analysis done in 2006, or in the UHCA's Analysis done in 2008.  To skirt this glaring omission, proponents of the "Fixed Rail" alternative for "Mass Transit" have changed their Sales Pitch to "provide a transportation alternative".

I find it hard to believe that the 20-Mile Plan DOESN'T EVEN INCLUDE UH MANOA -- which is arguably the BIGGEST contributor of Freeway Traffic when school is in session.  When UH is out for the Summer, Spring, or Winter breaks, we all notice how easy it is to get to work in the morning.

I also find it hard to believe that the 20-Mile Plan DOESN'T INCLUDE the obvious traffic sites like EWA BEACH.  Travelling along Fort Weaver Road is a painful experience, and it keeps getting worse because of all the development going on in the area.

I also find it ridiculous that City Councilman Romy Cachola opted to route Mass Transit through Salt Lake Boulevard, instead of adopting the original plan of going through the Airport.  According to his OpEd in the Star Bulletin, Romy made the decision based on the input of a mere 122 people.  Romy affected 70,000 to 80,000 residents because of 122 PEOPLE ?!?!  That's an irresponsible decision, or ridiculously juiced.

You will notice in Romy's OpEd, he talks about Transit Oriented Development opportunities in Stadium Mall, and along Salt Lake Boulevard.  With the Mass Transit Plan as it is today, we are building across Salt Lake Boulevard to yield ONLY ONE RAIL STOP, and it's at the corner of Ala Lilikoi and Salt Lake Boulevard (See Page 2 of the March 23 News Conference's Materials for the map of all Rail Stops). 

Ala Lilikoi and Salt Lake Boulevard is a TRAGIC LOCATION, because we have an Intermediate School, a Public Library, and an Elementary School in the immediate vicinity of that stop.

And don't forget about Radford High School, whose students will be subject to the noise of 20 Trains Per Hour during Mass Transit's peak operation.

Furthermore, if Mass Transit is going along Salt Lake Boulevard, how will the Mass Transit route get across the H1 Bridge next to Stadium Mall?  Under the bridge?  Over the bridge?

 In Closing
I'm not saying "Don't Build Mass Transit".  I know we need a solution for the people in Ewa Beach and Mililani who are suffering in rush hour traffic every day.

But to be brutally honest, Mayor Mufi Hannemann is rushing into a Mass Transit Project without a solid plan, and I have a problem with that.  Under the current plan, we're committing $2,800,000,000 of Honolulu Tax Dollars to chase after a mere $900,000,000 in Federal Funding (and that's an OPTIMISTIC MAXIMUM).

For Honolulu to be spending that kind of money, and embarking on the largest Public Works Project in Honolulu's History, I'd rather start out with a SOLID PLAN that we all agree on.  With numbers and facts being wildly spun by proponents and advocates, I think "breaking ground" in 2009 is going to be a costlier mistake than abstaining for another year or two.

Speaking as a seasoned Software Engineer, it's always been my experience that Projects started with POOR Design and Planning end up costing WAY, WAY MORE than the original estimates, due to Change Requests and Scope Creep.  Just look at Honolulu's JIMS Project, where we recently wasted $12 MILLION.

Poor Planning leads to COSTLY OVERRUNS.  It doesn't matter if it's the Software Industry, or the Construction Industry.

We are scrambling over $900,000,000 in Federal Funding.
Think about this: We collected $211,000,000 -- about 1/4 of what we hope to receive in Federal Funds -- in the first 16 months of the Excise Tax increase.

It will cost Honolulu WAY MORE than $900,000,000 if we jump into a Mass Transit Project, and discover we need to make changes along the way.